Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy
Identifieur interne : 000887 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000886; suivant : 000888Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy
Auteurs : Valentina Clamer [Italie] ; Ilaria Dorigatti [Royaume-Uni] ; Laura Fumanelli [Italie] ; Caterina Rizzo [Italie] ; Andrea Pugliese [Italie]Source :
- Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling [ 1742-4682 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- physiologie : Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Humains, Incidence, Italie, Modèles théoriques, Pandémies, Probabilité, Simulation numérique, Établissements scolaires.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Computer Simulation, Humans, Incidence, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (physiology), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (transmission), Influenza, Human (virology), Italy, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics (statistics & numerical data), Probability, Schools (statistics & numerical data).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- physiology : Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype.
- statistics & numerical data : Pandemics, Schools.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Computer Simulation, Humans, Incidence, Italy, Models, Theoretical, Probability.
Abstract
Epidemic models are being extensively used to understand the main pathways of spread of infectious diseases, and thus to assess control methods. Schools are well known to represent hot spots for epidemic spread; hence, understanding typical patterns of infection transmission within schools is crucial for designing adequate control strategies. The attention that was given to the 2009 A/H1N1pdm09 flu pandemic has made it possible to collect detailed data on the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms in two primary schools of Trento, Italy.
The data collected in the two schools were used to calibrate a discrete-time SIR model, which was designed to estimate the probabilities of influenza transmission within the classes, grades and schools using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We found that the virus was mainly transmitted within class, with lower levels of transmission between students in the same grade and even lower, though not significantly so, among different grades within the schools. We estimated median values of
The discrepancy between the values of
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12976-016-0045-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0045-2
PubMed: 27729047
PubMed Central: 5059896
Affiliations:
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Mathematics, University of Trento, Via Sommarive 14, Trento</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Trento</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dorigatti, Ilaria" sort="Dorigatti, Ilaria" uniqKey="Dorigatti I" first="Ilaria" last="Dorigatti">Ilaria Dorigatti</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="Aff2">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fumanelli, Laura" sort="Fumanelli, Laura" uniqKey="Fumanelli L" first="Laura" last="Fumanelli">Laura Fumanelli</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff3">Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Trento</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rizzo, Caterina" sort="Rizzo, Caterina" uniqKey="Rizzo C" first="Caterina" last="Rizzo">Caterina Rizzo</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="Aff4">Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Roma, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Roma</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pugliese, Andrea" sort="Pugliese, Andrea" uniqKey="Pugliese A" first="Andrea" last="Pugliese">Andrea Pugliese</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Via Sommarive 14, Trento, 38123 Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Via Sommarive 14, Trento</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Trento</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling</title><idno type="eISSN">1742-4682</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (physiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term><term>Italy</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pandemics (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Probability</term><term>Schools (statistics & numerical data)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Italie</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Pandémies ()</term><term>Probabilité</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (physiologie)</term><term>Établissements scolaires ()</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Pandemics</term><term>Schools</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Italy</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Probability</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Italie</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Probabilité</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Établissements scolaires</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Epidemic models are being extensively used to understand the main pathways of spread of infectious diseases, and thus to assess control methods. Schools are well known to represent hot spots for epidemic spread; hence, understanding typical patterns of infection transmission within schools is crucial for designing adequate control strategies. The attention that was given to the 2009 A/H1N1pdm09 flu pandemic has made it possible to collect detailed data on the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms in two primary schools of Trento, Italy.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The data collected in the two schools were used to calibrate a discrete-time SIR model, which was designed to estimate the probabilities of influenza transmission within the classes, grades and schools using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We found that the virus was mainly transmitted within class, with lower levels of transmission between students in the same grade and even lower, though not significantly so, among different grades within the schools. We estimated median values of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> from the epidemic curves in the two schools of 1.16 and 1.40; on the other hand, we estimated the average number of students infected by the first school case to be 0.85 and 1.09 in the two schools.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The discrepancy between the values of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> estimated from the epidemic curve or from the within-school transmission probabilities suggests that household and community transmission played an important role in sustaining the school epidemics. The high probability of infection between students in the same class confirms that targeting within-class transmission is key to controlling the spread of influenza in school settings and, as a consequence, in the general population.</p></sec><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12976-016-0045-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Camacho, A" uniqKey="Camacho A">A Camacho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ballesteros, S" uniqKey="Ballesteros S">S Ballesteros</name></author><author><name sortKey="Graham, Al" uniqKey="Graham A">AL Graham</name></author><author><name sortKey="Carrat, F" uniqKey="Carrat F">F Carrat</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ratmann, O" uniqKey="Ratmann O">O Ratmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cazelles, B" uniqKey="Cazelles B">B 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Boëlle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Flahault, A" uniqKey="Flahault A">A Flahault</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Merler, S" uniqKey="Merler S">S Merler</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, M" uniqKey="Ajelli M">M Ajelli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Camilloni, B" uniqKey="Camilloni B">B Camilloni</name></author><author><name sortKey="Puzelli, S" uniqKey="Puzelli S">S Puzelli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bella, A" uniqKey="Bella A">A Bella</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rota, Mc" uniqKey="Rota M">MC Rota</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tozzi, Ae" uniqKey="Tozzi A">AE Tozzi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Muraca, M" uniqKey="Muraca M">M Muraca</name></author><author><name sortKey="Meledandri, M" uniqKey="Meledandri M">M Meledandri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Iorio, Am" uniqKey="Iorio A">AM Iorio</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donatelli, I" uniqKey="Donatelli I">I Donatelli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rizzo, C" uniqKey="Rizzo C">C Rizzo</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Italie</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li><li>Latium</li></region><settlement><li>Londres</li><li>Rome</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Clamer, Valentina" sort="Clamer, Valentina" uniqKey="Clamer V" first="Valentina" last="Clamer">Valentina Clamer</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Fumanelli, Laura" sort="Fumanelli, Laura" uniqKey="Fumanelli L" first="Laura" last="Fumanelli">Laura Fumanelli</name><name sortKey="Pugliese, Andrea" sort="Pugliese, Andrea" uniqKey="Pugliese A" first="Andrea" last="Pugliese">Andrea Pugliese</name><name sortKey="Rizzo, Caterina" sort="Rizzo, Caterina" uniqKey="Rizzo C" first="Caterina" last="Rizzo">Caterina Rizzo</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Dorigatti, Ilaria" sort="Dorigatti, Ilaria" uniqKey="Dorigatti I" first="Ilaria" last="Dorigatti">Ilaria Dorigatti</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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